Earnings growth wrestles inflation for control of market narrative

For the second time in a row, the reporting period for EPFR-tracked funds ended with markets responding to hopes of an end to the fighting between the US and Iran and the accompanying energy shock. The upshot was a marked increase in risk appetite, which was reflected in the latest flow data. High Yield Bond Funds posted their first inflow since mid-February, flows into Private Credit Funds hit an eight-week high, and investors steered fresh money into Europe Equity, Bond and Money Market Funds.

Going into the final day of the latest reporting period, which ended April 1, flows for EPFR-tracked mutual funds and ETFs had a nowhere-to-hide quality, with redemptions the norm and flows to previously popular fund groups losing momentum. But a burst of optimism about an end to the current conflict in the Middle East, stemming from the belief that both US President Donald Trump and Iran’s leadership want the war to end soon, saw a surge of fresh money into global markets and several fund groups.

As the first quarter of 2026 headed into its final fortnight, investors were looking at a range of threats to their portfolios. These include conflict in the Middle East, stress in private credit markets, the threat of stagflation, rising sovereign debt levels and the ROI on the billions of dollars being spent developing artificial intelligence (AI) and its supporting infrastructure.