New quarter, same tariff-related rhetoric

The third quarter of 2025 began the same way as the second, with US President Donald Trump roiling markets with a barrage of announcements about impending tariff hikes. These included boosting levies on Brazilian exports and copper to 50%.

Reaction to Trump’s latest push on tariffs, which came during a holiday-shortened week that saw US markets closed for the 4th of July, was muted. The same was true for mutual fund flows. During the week ending July 9, flows into EPFR-tracked Equity Funds totaled $16.9 billion while Alternative, Bond and Money Market Funds pulled in $2.9 billion, $20.7 billion and $30.6 billion, respectively.

The latest week saw US Equity Funds post only their second inflow since mid-May, US Bond Funds take in fresh money for the 11th week running, the diversified Global and Global Emerging Markets (GEM) Equity Funds both add to their current inflow streaks and flows into Equity Funds with socially responsible (SRI) or environmental, social and governance (ESG) mandates climb to an eight-week high.

Among the fund groups seeing outflows were Physical Gold Funds, which snapped a six-week inflow streak, and Bear Funds, which posted their biggest outflow since early April. Investors also pulled money out of Leveraged Equity Funds for the 11th straight week.

Cumulative weekly flows for all Leveraged Equity and Bear Funds, 2022-YTD

At the single country fund level, over $1 billion flowed out of Switzerland Money Market Funds for the third week running, Brazil Money Market Funds tallied their biggest inflow since mid-December, Indonesia Bond Funds set a new weekly inflow record and Canada Equity Funds extended their longest run of inflows so far this year.

 

Emerging Markets Equity Funds

The week ending July 9 saw EPFR-tracked Emerging Markets Equity Funds post their first collective inflow of the new quarter as flows into with the diversified Global Emerging Markets (GEM) Equity Funds hit a level last seen in 1Q23. Year-to-date, investors have steered over $50 billion into EM Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) while non-ETFs have surrendered over $20 billion.

EM Equity Funds with socially responsible (SRI) or environmental, social and governance (ESG) mandates extended their longest inflow streak since a 26-week run ended in mid-2Q23. Leveraged EM Equity Funds posted their 10th outflow over the past three months and flows into Frontier Markets Equity Funds climbed to a seven-week high.

It was a mixed week for Asia ex-Japan Country Fund groups, with Korea Equity Funds absorbing another $815 million while India Equity Funds posted their third outflow since the beginning of the second quarter, Taiwan (Province of China) Equity Funds their third outflow year-to-date, and Thailand Equity Funds experienced net redemptions for the 79th consecutive week. Sentiment towards Thai equity has been dented by constant political instability, with the latest bout triggered by the suspension of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra on the grounds she undermined the country’s military in the wake of a border clash with Cambodia.

Anatomy of a political crisis: Flows into Thai equity and other fixed income funds over June

Funds dedicated to mainland China experienced modest net redemptions ahead of data showing producer price deflation at a two-year high. GEM ex-China Equity Funds, meanwhile, posted their biggest weekly inflow since late January.

Elsewhere, investors continued to rebuild their exposure to the EMEA universe as the ceasefire between Iran and Israel held. EMEA Equity Funds collectively posted their biggest inflow in over two years. At the country level, flows into Turkey, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Israel Equity Funds hit nine, 16, 48 and 69-week highs, respectively, while Poland Equity Funds chalked up their 22nd inflow of the past 24 weeks.

The threat of 50% tariffs on Brazilian exports to the US triggered the biggest daily outflow from Brazil Equity Funds since May 19. But the group still ended the week with their 10th inflow over the past 11 weeks with foreign domiciled funds driving the headline number. Chile Equity Funds posted their biggest outflow since the first week of 2023 as investors digested the proposed US tariff on copper, by far Chile’s biggest export.

 

Developed Markets Equity Funds

EPFR-tracked Developed Markets Equity Funds posted their 22nd inflow year-to-date during the week ending July 9 despite US President Donald Trump’s latest round of proposed tariff hikes. US and Japan Equity Funds snapped their latest outflow streaks, Global Equity Funds pulled in another $5 billion and Europe Equity Funds recorded their 12th collective inflow over the past 13 weeks.

The modest flows into US Equity Funds went primarily to funds with mixed large cap mandates. Large Cap Value and Mid Cap Blends also took in fresh money while AI bellwether Nvidia’s ascent to the world’s first $4 trillion company did not stop more money leaving Large Cap Growth Funds. But major US companies continue to aggressively support their share prices through stock buybacks which are currently outpacing new share offerings by a 4.7-to-1 margin.

Annual Corporate Buy/Sell Ratio

Europe Equity Funds tallied their biggest inflow in five weeks as investors look ahead to the European Central Bank’s next policy meeting on July 24 and a potential US-EU trade deal. Investors favored diversified exposure, with Germany Equity Funds the only single country group to take in over $50 million for the week. Redemptions from Switzerland Equity Funds jumped to a 14-week high and UK Equity Funds, which have posted only one inflow so far this year, added to their current run of outflows.

A single ETF tracking the TOPIX index accounted for the bulk of the headline number for all Japan Equity Funds. But 22 funds absorbed over $10 million during a week when the US threatened to impose a general rate of 25% on Japanese exports and data showed real wage growth slumped in May.

Global ex-US Equity Funds racked up their 14th consecutive inflow while their fully global counterparts pulled in another $2.5 billion. Global Equity Funds overall remain one of the more popular groups among retail investors, with retail share classes posting collective inflows 15 times so far this year and, coming into July, recording their biggest weekly inflow since EPFR started tracking these funds in 2000.

 

Global sector, Industry and Precious Metals Funds

As second quarter earnings reports start to trickle in during early July, EPFR-tracked Sector and Precious Metals Fund flows reflected prevailing market themes. These included the impacts of lower interest rates, continued adoption of artificial intelligence and investor positioning ahead of earnings reports from big banks – Citigroup, JPM, BofA, Goldman Sachs – who will report next week.

Of the 11 major EPFR-tracked Sector Fund groups, seven posted inflows ranging from $74 million for Energy Sector Funds to $1.9 billion for both Technology and Financials Sector Funds during the week ending July 9.

Inflows for Financials Sector Funds came in above $1.5 billion for a second consecutive week. Most major subgroups saw inflows this week, with Bank Funds accounting for just over a third of the headline number. US Regional Bank Funds posted their biggest inflow in 11 weeks, China Bank Funds recorded a fifth straight week of above average inflows and all Europe-dedicated Bank Funds posted their second consecutive week of inflows after five weeks in negative territory.

Weekly cumulative flows for major dedicated Bank Fund groups within the Financials Sector Fund universe, YTD

Technology Sector Funds saw 27 ETFs pull in over $50 million as collective inflows climbed to a 13-week high. Two semiconductor funds pulled in a combined $750 million while leveraged funds dragged the headline number down with their 11th outflow of the past 12 weeks as investors shied away from anything with heightened exposure. Palantir and Nvidia each appeared twice among the top 10 leveraged tech funds with the week’s biggest outflows.

Adding another week to their lengthy inflow streaks were Industrials, Infrastructure and Utilities Sector Funds which hit 13, 11 and five weeks, respectively. The latter group has seen over half their yearly total flow in during the latest streak. Meanwhile, flows for Healthcare/Biotechnology Sector Funds returned to negative territory after a three-week run that brought in $1.4 billion.

 

Bond and other Fixed Income Funds

Hopes of a September cut in US interest rates see-sawed during the first full week of July as robust employment data and the passage of US President Donald Trump’s omnibus tax and spending bill dented the optimism generated by benign inflation data. But fixed income investors continue to see the glass half full, with flows into EPFR-tracked Bond Funds climbing to a seven-week high as they posted their 11th straight inflow.

The latest week saw US Bond Funds absorb over $10 billion for the second week running, Emerging Markets Bond Funds extend their longest inflow streak since 2021, Europe Bond Funds post their 24th inflow year-to-date, $2.9 billion flow into Global Bond Funds and Asia Pacific Bond Funds chalk up their biggest inflow since mid-1Q24.

At the asset class level, flows into Mortgage Backed Bond Funds hit an eight-week high, Inflation Protected Bond Funds posted consecutive weekly outflows for the first time since early January, High Yield Bond Funds extended an inflow streak stretching back to the final week of April and Bank Loan Funds tallied their biggest inflow in over four months.

A subgroup of Bank Loan Funds continues to enjoy strong investor demand despite lackluster performance. Collateralized Loan Obligation (CLO) Funds have, in relative terms, been one of the top three fund groups since the 2024 US presidential election with net inflows equal to 75% of their AUM at the start of November.

YTD cumulative flows vs performance for CLOs vs major Bond Fund subgroups

Emerging Markets Mixed Currency Funds have been one of 2025’s better performing fixed income fund groups. But recent demand remains focused on local currency funds dedicated to Asian markets with dedicated China Bond Funds leading the way. The latest week did see a broadening of investor interest. The diversified Global Emerging Markets (GEM) Bond Funds posted solid inflows for the fifth time over the past six weeks, Frontier Markets Bond Funds added to their longest inflow streak since 1Q20 and flows into EMEA Equity Funds climbed to a 21-week high.

The above average flows into Asia Pacific Funds were driven by several Singapore-mandated funds that added up to a record-setting week for Singapore Equity Funds.

Both foreign and domestically domiciled US Bond Funds recorded decent inflows. Flows into US Sovereign Bond Funds came in at a seven-week high and US Ultra Short Term Bond Funds chalked up their 12th straight inflow. Looking north, Canada Bond Funds have posted 11 consecutive inflows with corporate-mandated funds outgaining Canada Sovereign Bond Funds during the past five weeks.

Flows to Europe Bond Funds again favored funds with diversified regional and corporate mandates while Switzerland Bond Funds saw another $1 billion flow out as investors adjusted their exposure in response to the Swiss Central Bank’s 0% short term rate.

 

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