What EPFR data tells us about the likelihood of greater volatility

With the Syrian civil war reaching – at least for now – a prompt resolution, China adopting a looser monetary stance, and both the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank expected to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points before the New Year, investors found some things to cheer about during the first full week of December.

The first four days of December served up $100,000 Bitcoin, the collapse of the French government, a new twist to the conflict in the Middle East and South Korea’s flirtation with martial law. With the holiday season on the horizon and 2024 winding down, investors responded to these events by rotating from conventional assets classes to unconventional ones and cash.

US President-elect Donald Trump has made it clear he has little truck with the logic of climate change. But investors expect Trump’s presidency will make the global investment climate markedly less stable in the coming years. They are also taking him at his word that ‘America first’ will underpin his administration’s economic policymaking and acting accordingly.