Earnings growth wrestles inflation for control of market narrative

Rising prices and higher-than-expected earnings shaped investor sentiment during the third week of October. Most of the companies reporting their 3Q21 numbers surpassed expectations. But their reports and forecasts were qualified by the shortages, input cost increases and supply chain issues they are facing.

Investors responded by pouring nearly $25 billion into EPFR-tracked Equity Funds, with 10 of the 11 major Sector Fund groups recording inflows for the week, and by stepping up their search for inflation protection. Bank Loan and Inflation Protection Funds took in over $1 billion apiece, and Cryptocurrency Funds extended their current inflow streak.

Graph depicting the 'Cumulative flows, as percentage of Assets under management, for major money market fund groups, from 2016 to date'.

Graph depicting 'Change, in basis points for GEM equity fund allocations to major markets, 2021 to date'.

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Ahead of a nine-day window encompassing policy meeting by the European Central Bank, US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan, investors steered another $16.6 billion into EPFR-tracked Bond Funds and $30 billion into Money Market Funds while Equity Funds posted their first collective outflow since mid-April.

All goldilocks and no bears in late August

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The Paris Summer Olympics ended with the US and China occupying first and second position in the medal standings. They occupied the same positions when the latest week’s fund flows were tallied, with EPFR-tracked China Equity Funds pulling in over $6 billion for the fifth time so far this year and combined flows into US Equity, Bond and Money Market Funds exceeding $40 billion for the third week running.

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