Omicron? The grinch that stole the global growth story before Christmas? Or the angel of disinflation that will banish the specter of interest rate hikes? The first week of December saw investors weighing both interpretations of the latest Covid-19 variant and making cautious guesses about which one is more credible.

Flows to EPFR-tracked fund groups during the first week of December tilted towards the positive – at least for the US. Investors steered money into US Equity Funds for the 11th straight week, US Bond and Global Equity Funds rebounded from their first outflows in over seven and 17 months, respectively, and US Money Market Funds took in fresh money for the seventh time in the past eight weeks.

Graph depicting the 'Top 30 fund groups by net inflows, in US dollar millions, year-to-date.'

Graph depicting the 'Cumulative weekly retail and institutional flows, as percentage of Assets under management, for China equity funds, from 2020 to date'.

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Interest rates and investor sentiment on hold

Interest rates and investor sentiment on hold

Investors hoping for the p-word got one during the third week of September. But it was ‘plateau’, rather than ‘pivot’, as the Bank of England and US Federal Reserve kept interest rates at their current levels but went out of their way to stress that they could remain at those levels for some time.

Another turn of the screw in Europe

Another turn of the screw in Europe

The question of when major central banks will declare victory in their battles against inflation or, in the case of China, misallocation of credit and shift their focus to economic growth continued to preoccupy investors during the second week of September. Based on flows to EPFR-tracked funds, the current answers are soon (the US), not soon enough (China) and not as soon as we thought a week ago (Europe).

Keeping the powder dry in early September

Keeping the powder dry in early September

The first week of September saw EPFR-tracked Money Market Funds absorb over $65 billion as investors waited to see which way interest rate winds are blowing in the US and Eurozone. Also giving them pause for thought are the health of China’s economy, the durability of the latest bump in oil prices and the resilience of key real estate markets.

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