The final week of May ended with US lawmakers voting to lift the country’s debt ceiling, markets assigning a one-in-three chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in mid-June and the price of oil testing 18-month lows. Against this backdrop, flows into all EPFR-tracked Equity Funds hit a 17-week high on the back of record-setting inflows to Technology Sector Funds and China Equity Funds absorbed nearly $5 billion.
Amidst increasingly stark warnings of economic chaos if the current standoff over the US federal debt ceiling is not resolved, EPFR-tracked US Bond Funds pulled in another $8.1 billion going into the final week of May as they recorded their 21st consecutive inflow.
Worries about the impact a two-pronged credit squeeze, driven by quantitative tightening and the pressure on regional bank loan books, will have on the US economy kept investors in a defensive frame of mind during the week ending May 17.
Year-to-date the American S&P 500 index has rallied by over 7.5%. However, with a large proportion of these gains driven by just seven technology names, just how sustainable this trend has become is a hot topic among investors. This effect has been exacerbated in recent weeks as the 1Q23 earnings season results proved more fruitful for tech companies relative to other US sectors.
Following interest rate increases from both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, disparity has taken over investors. Our Head of Global Customer Solutions, Steve Muzzlewhite, uses our fund flows and asset allocations data to analyze the latest sector rotation and portfolio management strategies, and how these are impacting global markets.
A recession in the second half of the year, triggered by the impact of current interest rates on the real estate sector and the banks that lend to it, is a fearful scenario for investors. This was reflected in the flows for EPFR-tracked Sector Funds during the week ending May 10, with a combined $3.8 billion redeemed from Financial, Real Estate, Energy and Commodities Sector Funds.
How did markets react to the interest rate hikes from both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank? In a week where nonfarm payrolls in America reported a job increase way above the initial expectations, we use EPFR’s Fund Flows and Allocations data to deep dive into the latest investor sentiment trends.
Market news this week are dominated by rumors of another possible interest rate rise from both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, as well as the latest US job market update. How is money moving in the meantime? EPFR’s Global Head of Customer Solutions, Steve Muzzlewhite, takes a look at our latest fund flow data.
China and cash were by far and away the most popular asset classes during the fourth week of April as investors and markets braced for another round of rate hikes in early May.
From time to time, EPFR’s clients alert us to anomalous flows into exchange traded funds (ETFs) that occur on a specific day and for a specific fund. Given our awareness of these types of flows, and the granularity of our databases, EPFR’s quant team decided it was high time they dove into our ETF database and conducted a systematic analysis of these events.
