Year-to-date the American S&P 500 index has rallied by over 7.5%. However, with a large proportion of these gains driven by just seven technology names, just how sustainable this trend has become is a hot topic among investors. This effect has been exacerbated in recent weeks as the 1Q23 earnings season results proved more fruitful for tech companies relative to other US sectors.
From time to time, EPFR’s clients alert us to anomalous flows into exchange traded funds (ETFs) that occur on a specific day and for a specific fund. Given our awareness of these types of flows, and the granularity of our databases, EPFR’s quant team decided it was high time they dove into our ETF database and conducted a systematic analysis of these events.
In late November 2022, OpenAI launched ChatGPT – an AI driven chatbot that can answer complex questions and handle almost any topic. A couple of months later, Microsoft (who is the primary investor) added a similar function to its Office suite. As more and more companies delve into the artificial intelligence world, we take a look at AI funds using our EPFR Stock Barometer tool: is AI going to be the next bubble for investors?
In the face of this uncertainty, and the unwillingness of major Western central banks to suspend the battle against inflation, investors continued to cut risk, increase their exposure to China’s rebound story and steer cash into liquidity funds.
How much longer will the war in Ukraine go on? How much further will central banks go before they deem inflation contained? How much damage will the latest US debt ceiling standoff do? How widely will the benefits of China’s anticipated economic rebound be felt? What direction will Japanese monetary policy take?
A stellar employment report, showing that the US added 517,000 jobs in January, threw another wrinkle at investors in early February. Those investors were already digesting interest rate hikes in the US, Eurozone, Canada and the UK, Russian offensives in Ukraine, a mixed 4Q22 corporate earnings season and the latest source of Sino-US friction.
In this week’s video, EPFR’s Steve Muzzlewhite assesses the latest US unemployment data and the impact this may have on fund flows and allocations.
Actions spoke louder – to equity investors – than words coming into February, with the fact that the latest interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve was only 25 basis points, boosting flows to US Equity Funds and other groups despite the accompanying verbal warning that the battle against inflation is “not fully done.”
At the turn of the century, investing in China was viewed as a risky proposition. Foreign access to a notoriously volatile, retail-driven equity market was heavily restricted. The lack of a credible regulatory framework and legal protections deterred US venture capitalists from making direct investments in Chinese companies. In many cases, Chinese banks and the country’s fledgling private equity industry also balked. So, when Chinese technology firm Alibaba received its first $25 million investment from Goldman Sachs in 1999, investors sat up and took notice.
Is there a coming outflow in Japan’s long-dated government bonds? Where might this money be reallocated to? Who is the investor? EPFR Quant Analyst Vikram Srimurthy, reflects on The Wall Street Journal article, ‘Japan’s 10-Year Government Bond Yield Breaches New Cap’.
